U.S. trailer order volume slid sequentially for the third month in a row, but it is all relative when one considers that nearly 28,000 net orders were posted in December, according to this month’s issue of ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailer Report. The report explains that the long-running order stream that started in the fall of 2017 and never really seasonally slid in mid-year is finally running out of steam, but not from lack of demand.
“While some fleets may have stepped back to better assess the market, indications are that there was still significant interest in placing orders,” said Frank Maly, Director–CV Transportation Analysis and Research at ACT Research. “However, it takes two to tango, and there were indications of OEM resistance to add to the record-setting backlog. Comments included an unwillingness to accept orders that would extend commitments deeper into 2019, or even into 2020, driven by a lack of long lead-time component pricing to support price quotes.”
Additionally, Maly said, “The seasonal order softness has resulted in a bit of a dichotomy for backlogs. Orders were sufficient enough to push the year-end orderboard to just under 247,000 units not seasonally adjusted, but that’s much less improvement than normally occurs at year-end. And while we have a couple of different ways to measure it, the method isn’t as important as is the fact that the industry is already committed through most of 2019.”
ACT Research also announced the average price of total used Class 8 trucks sold in 2018 was up 10 percent compared to 2017, according to the latest release of the State of the Industry: U.S. Classes 3-8 Used Trucks. The report, published by ACT Research, also indicated that used Class 8 same dealer sales volumes fell 9 percent month over month, but rose 8 percent for full-year 2018. Average mileage was flat compared to 2017, while average age declined 3 percent in 2018.
“Dealers are reporting that used truck sales continue at a very high pace, with the only immediate dark clouds being that there are not enough trucks to meet demand,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. “However, dealers are also cognizant of slowing freight growth and the subsequent dynamics expected to play out in the new truck market. Ultimately, the industry expects an abundance of inventory that will inevitably put downward pressure on prices.”
Analysis of the individual market segments continue to indicate mixed results. Tam explained, “The retail segment posted its first year-over-year decline since December 2016, but was up 13 percent year-to-date. On the other hand, the auction channel was up 8 percent year-over-year, but down 4 percent year-to-date. The wholesale segment dropped 30 percent year-over-year, remaining flat for full-year 2018.”
The report from ACT provides data on the average selling price, miles, and age based on a sample of industry data. In addition, the report provides the average selling price for top-selling Class 8 models for each of the major truck OEMs – Freightliner (Daimler); Kenworth and Peterbilt (Paccar); International (Navistar); and Volvo and Mack (Volvo).