The latest Cass Freight Index shows little change in the shipments component in March compared with February. The Transportation Indexes measure changes in North American freight activity and costs based on $36 billion in paid freight expenses for the Cass customer base of hundreds of large shippers.

Cass Freight Index - Shipments

• The decline in shipments narrowed to 5.3% y/y in March from 5.5% in February.
• In SA terms, the index fell 2.1% m/m, after a 4.9% gain in February after severe January weather. Some of the improvement in February was also likely from pre-tariff shipping.

The recent 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs will likely lead to more pre-tariff shipping in Q2. However, this will contend with adverse effects from the extreme tariffs on China at this writing, and other tariffs.

Volumes may also be temporarily supported in the coming months as consumers scoop up pre-tariff goods before prices go up. But thereafter, the trade war is likely to extend the for-hire freight recession as higher prices reduce goods affordability and consumers’ real incomes.

After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024, and so far, is trending toward another decline in 2025.

In April, the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index would decline 4% y/y on the normal seasonal pattern.

Cass Freight Index - Expenditures

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, rose 2.8% m/m in March. The y/y decline narrowed to 2.0%, from 4.6% in February.

The y/y decline was more than explained by lower volumes, as shipments fell 5.3%, and we infer rates rose 3.5% y/y in March.

• In SA terms, the expenditures index rose 1.5% m/m, with shipments down 2.1% and rates up 3.7%, largely due to mix changes, but reversing most of the drop in February.  

This index includes changes in fuel, modal mix, intramodal mix, and accessorial charges, so is a bit more volatile than the cleaner Cass Truckload Linehaul Index.

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024.

Inferred Freight Rates

The rates embedded in the two components of the Cass Freight Index rose 2.8% m/m in March, and 3.7% SA.

While there is a fair amount of mix-related movement each month, the 0.3% average increase in the past 6- and 12-month periods suggests the pricing environment is relatively steady and rising modestly.

• The y/y increase in Cass Inferred Freight Rates accelerated to 3.5% in March from 1.0% in February, consistent with the small increases in contract rates which seem prevalent these days.
• After a 7% decline in 2024, freight rates are starting 2025 on track for low- to mid-single-digit increases in 2025.

Based on the normal seasonal pattern, this index would rise about 3% in April and is trending toward a small increase for 2025.

Cass Inferred Freight Rates are a simple calculation of the Cass Freight Index data—expenditures divided by shipments—producing a data set that explains the overall movement in cost per shipment. The data set is diversified among all modes, with truckload (TL) representing more than half of the dollars, followed by less-than-truckload (LTL), rail, parcel, and so on.

Truckload Linehaul Index

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index fell 0.1% m/m in March, after six straight small increases. The index was 4.7% above that August low in March.

• The y/y change slowed to a 1.5% increase in March after a 1.9% increase in February.

This index fell 10% in 2023 and another 3% in 2024. Where it will go in 2025 is a big question, but it is off to a positive start.

Freight Expectations

One of the most frequently asked questions this month is, what proportion of freight is international trade? Even with good border and port data, it’s tough to pinpoint. But triangulating a number of expert opinions (thanks to Dr. Jason Miller of Michigan State in particular), the answer is in the 20%-25% range—not a small niche.

We expect a few more months of brisk demand for pre-tariff goods, followed by a tariff adjustment period with lower goods demand. It’s been 39 months since the first y/y decline of this cycle, so a recovery can only be so far away. But freight is very much in the crosshairs of the trade war.

Our forecasts through 2027 are detailed in the ACT Research Freight Forecast. This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of US freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, LTL, and intermodal price indexes.