In September, the industry reported an all-time best month for heavy vocational truck orders at 20,000 units (NA, NSA). Over the three months ending November, 38,100 orders were booked, which seasonally adjusts to a 146,900-unit annualized rate, as published in the latest release of the ACT Research: North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“The big story is healthy tailwinds driving demand in the form of US industrial policy and stimulus plans that had manufacturing and private construction expenditures running at record levels into the end of 2024. Much of the ~$2 trillion in stimulus from CHIPS, IRA, and IIJA put in place in 2021 and 2022 continues to be deployed into the economy, providing good visibility for equipment buyers,” according to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst.
He added, “In addition to well supported end markets and expectations of some additional inventory building, expensive technology-forcing regulations on the horizon give vocational truck buyers not only willingness to get a head start on refreshing their fleet, but clearly, the ability as well.”
“We always caution that one month does not make a trend, but continued strength in orders, following September’s explosion, suggests queuing for EPA’27 and GHG-3 is underway,” Vieth concluded.
NA CV Forecast Report Overview
The NA CV forecast reports on the trucking industry forecast, providing a status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years. The report’s objective is to give OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other interested market participants the information they need to make informed decisions in what is traditionally a deeply cyclical market. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, touching on relevant demand drivers starting with forward-looking activity metrics, orders and backlogs. Information included in this report covers build and retail sales forecasts and current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, North American macroeconomics by country, freight and carrier market performance, used equipment valuation trends, and regulatory environment analysis and impacts.