ACT Research releases a number of key reports and outlooks that affect the equipment finance industry throughout the month. This is a top-line roundup of December's key observations.

N.A. Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK

1. Economy - Based on the second estimate of Q3 GDP, the US economy maintained strong growth driven by robust consumer spending. As reported, real GDP expanded at a 2.8% q/q SAAR, unchanged from the initial estimate and matching consensus expectations.
2. Medium Duty - November’s preliminary net orders of 13,500 MD trucks (+/- 5.0%) mark the fifth consecutive month of below-trend demand.
3. Heavy Duty - If the EPA’s Clean Truck regulation does down, the prebuy thesis goes too, returning demand to market-derived levels. With a young fleet, fully stocked inventories, low carrier profits, low equipment valuations, and high interest rates, a roll back would rewrite 2026-2027 expectations.
4. Trailer - The build rate, at 789 units per day (upd), was down 5% from September’s 835 upd rate.
5. Used Truck - Same dealer used Class 8 retail sales jumped in October, abruptly ending a pattern of slowing. The 6.6% m/m increase easily bested the 2.1% seasonal growth indicated by history.

Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate & Volume OUTLOOK

1. The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® rose 0.5% m/m in November, after two consecutive declines.
2. US dry van TL spot rates, net fuel, rose 1? m/m to $1.64 per mile in November, falling 1? in SA terms.
3. The Driver Availability Index increased to 55.6 in October, from 53.6 in September. October marks the 29th month in a row the index has been at or above 50. Driver availability remains persistently elevated and far from a shortage, partly supported by the large increase in pay during the pandemic and by the rise in migration since.
4. The Volume Index increased 7.4 points in October to 56.9, from 49.5 in September.
5. The Supply-Demand Balance increased in October to 57.2 (SA), from 48.8 in September.

State of the Industry: N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles

Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 37.2k units in November, on very strong tractor demand.

“Given the generationally weak profits experienced by for-hire carriers in 2024, and the relative youth of private fleet, tractor orders of 28.7k units are a high-side surprise,” according to Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “While some of this month’s strong orders likely came from post-election optimism in for-hire, we suspect that private fleets worried about future supply chain disruptions continued as the larger driver of tractor demand in November. Vocational truck orders totaled 8.6k units, another historically strong number, suggesting the vocational market is jumping in the queue ahead of EPA’27 and GHG-3.”

State of the Industry: U.S. Used Truck Classes 3-8

The Class 8 average retail sale price ticked up $230 in November, translating into a 0.4% m/m bump.

“On a y/y basis, prices were 4.4% lower,” said Steve Tam, Vice President at ACT Research. “Prices are expected to remain stable at or around the current level for the next couple of months before transitioning to y/y growth in early 2025.”

State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers

November net trailer orders, at 20.8k units, were up 23% from October, but 4% below the level accepted in November 2023.

“November’s trailer orders bring ytd activity to 139.1k units, down 34% from ytd November 2023’s 211.0k bookings, competing against a better 2023 order environment, lingering pent-up demand, and modest supply chain congestion. Order weakness exhibited in 2024 is made worse when viewed relative to 2023’s fuller backlogs,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research.