A new forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker shows shipments of personal computing devices are expected to grow 2.6% year over year in 2024 to 398.9 million units. The traditional PC market will remain flat in 2024 with 261 million units shipped while the tablet market is forecast to grow 7.2% year over year as a refresh cycle and project investments are expected to drive the market.

For traditional PCs, the global market excluding China is expected to grow 2.8% in 2024 as China continues to suffer through a confluence of macroeconomic challenges, including high youth employment, deflation, and a tumultuous real estate market. However, China's economic concerns have largely impacted just the PC market as tablet demand has proven to be more resilient thanks to Huawei's efforts.

"The first half of 2024 showed how aggressive some of the Android vendors have been in competing in the tablet market, maximizing on the opportunities for sustainable demand for tablet devices in emerging regions such as Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan), the People's Republic of China (PRC), and Central and Eastern Europe. Adoption rates are expected to climb in the short term as the market continues to evolve with newer tablet models with upgraded chips, larger screens, and connectivity. And the device replacement cycle is only going to push the growth further," said Anuroopa Nataraj, senior research analyst with IDC's Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers. "However, in the long term, growth potential for the tablet market remains flat, challenged by more powerful smartphones and limited functionality compared to PCs."

Meanwhile, PCs are forecast to grow 4.3% year over year in 2025 as the end of support for Windows 10 will drive a refresh cycle particularly among commercial buyers. However, this is also expected to present an opportunity for Apple to gain marginal share – growing from 9.1% in 2024 to 9.7% in 2025 and 10.2% in 2026 – as businesses use the PC refresh cycle to migrate some workflows to Mac.

AI continues to play a pivotal role in shaping the PC landscape, enhancing productivity and personalized user experience. Looking ahead, North America, major countries in Asia/Pacific (PRC, India, Japan), and some Western European countries are expected to lead AI PC adoption although this will largely be driven by the need for new PCs as opposed to a specific need for AI PCs.

"While AI has been a buzzword of late, it has yet to be a purchase driver among PC buyers," said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager, Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. "Businesses certainly recognize the importance of AI though many struggle to see the immediate use case and instead are opting for AI PCs as a means to futureproofing. Meanwhile, consumers are yet to fully grasp the importance of an on-board Neural Processing Unit (NPU) and are likely to need more education or handholding from OEMs." That said, the inclusion of an NPU and the early hardware requirements for AI use cases are leading to more premium devices that tend to include more memory and storage, all of which is expected to lead to an increase in average selling prices (ASP) in the coming years.

Though near-term outlook for AI PCs remains modest, the long-term trend undoubtedly points towards an onslaught of AI PCs as the inclusion of a NPU propagates down to lower-tier PCs and supply eventually finds itself in a position where producing processors without a NPU becomes cost prohibitive.