Recent data show declining equipment and load posts, in a sign of ongoing private fleet insourcing, according to the latest release of the Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.
“Even with more private fleet capacity in the spot market than ever before, overall spot capacity continues to be slowly whittled away by low rates,” shared Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst. “Freight demand continues to grow broadly, through private fleets are handling the growth and insourcing. While general merchandise retail trends are positive enough to suggest a decent peak season for freight volumes overall, some sectors are struggling, so spot conditions are unlikely to improve much.”
Denoyer added, “For freight markets, a key near-term implication of elevated election uncertainty is likely to be lower equipment demand. Regardless of the outcome, the next few months are set to be contentious, and decision-makers planning next year’s fleets face immense uncertainty.”
Our DAT aggregate spot rate, net fuel, is at $1.74 in September (seasonally adjusted), unchanged from August and up marginally from $1.68 in Q4’23, and the seasonally adjusted load/truck ratio is currently 5.2:1.
The DAT load/truck ratio isn’t exactly a scale of 1 to 10. It can go way past 11. It reached the mid-teens in 2017 and early 2018 and the high teens during 2021, peaking above 20. The current 5.2 SA level suggests near-term spot rates will remain in neutral, even amid the likely brief port disruptions in early October.
Denoyer concluded, “Freight markets face more of the same in the near term, but the setup is changing into 2025.”
The monthly 58-page ACT Freight Forecast report provides analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, and DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type. The service provides monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for the TL, LTL, and intermodal markets over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The Freight Forecast provides unmatched detail on the freight rate outlook, helping companies across the supply chain plan with greater visibility and less uncertainty.