Preliminary net trailer orders rose about 1,000 units from June to July, but at 7,200 units, were lower compared to last July, down 37 percent y/y. Seasonal adjustment (SA) at this point in the annual order cycle boosts July’s tally to 10,300 units. Final July results will be available later this month.

“This month’s data brings YTD 2024 US trailer net orders to just under 82,000 units, a 26 percent contraction when compared to the first seven months of 2023,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. She added, “Despite the sequential improvement in orders, July data continues to bear witness to our expectations of weaker demand against the backdrop of elevated order velocity the past few years, continuing weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, and already-filled dealer inventories. That said, it is important to remember that for orders, we remain in the weakest months of the annual cycle, minimally suggesting there is no catalyst for stronger orders before the fall and the OEMs’ opening of their 2025 order books.”

She continued, “While we do see fleets starting to make more money later this year, thereby increasing their ability to purchase equipment, that improvement is off a very low base as carrier profits in the first half of 2024 were at levels not seen since early 2010. Looking to 2025, the trailer industry is also pressured by regulation, as we continue to expect fleets’ willingness to spend will lean toward the purchase of new power units ahead of the EPA’s implementation of 2027 regulations.”

McNealy added, “Industry anecdotes suggest that the ‘pause button’ is expected to remain pressed through the remainder of 2024, although dealers are making progress in right-sizing inventory levels. However, cancellations remain elevated, resulting in trailer maker concern about how long demand will stay subdued, as well as whether the supply chain will be ready to respond when demand does ramp.”