Trucking data in May were disinflationary—higher truck orders, lower Cass shipments, and stalling spot trends—and show an industry prioritizing planning for emissions rules over cost economics, according to the latest release of the Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.

“Small fleets remain resilient as ever, but the record number of operating authority revocations over the past 18 months shows considerable capacity contraction. For-hire truckload conditions are taking longer to improve this cycle than in prior ones, partly because of that resilience. But we think the ongoing capacity expansion by private fleets is outweighing the capacity contraction in the small part of the market,” said Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst. “Elevated equipment demand as fleets gear up for EPA’27 is a key factor likely to drag overcapacity on even further. The for-hire cycle will improve once excess capacity additions end. That will likely be a while.”

He continued, “Typically by this point in the cycle, Class 8 tractor orders have fallen considerably further, but longer-term considerations are outweighing cost economics in many cases. Strong truck orders provide more evidence of prebuying ahead of 2027 emissions standards, likely extending overcapacity a while longer.”

Denoyer concluded, “To the ongoing question of whether the truckload market rebounds or continues to bounce along the bottom, this situation may lead to some more bounces.”