Coming off one of the worst quarters in history for for-hire carriers, as evidenced by a 14-year low in net income amongst publicly traded TL carriers, possible green shoots are emerging. After a year of cost-defying buying by private fleets, ACT Research projects this month is likely the last for above replacement-level U.S. Class 8 tractor capacity additions, as published in ACT Research’s latest State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report.
Final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 15,850 units in April, 16.9k seasonally adjusted, up 32 percent against last year’s easiest comparison. U.S. Class 8 tractor orders fell 25 percent y/y in April. Total Classes 5-7 orders rose 1.9 percent to 18,863 units, or 19.3k seasonally adjusted.
“April orders reinforce our belief that in addition to weak for-hire market conditions, private fleet expansion is slowing,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “This would be welcome news for the beleaguered for-hire market, as the journey back to healthier financials starts with capacity restraint.”
Vieth concluded, “Positively, the DAT van load-to-truck ratio, thanks to contracting spot market equipment levels has pushed up to 4.0, seasonally adjusted, from an average of 3.3 in 2023.”