With freight markets continuing their bounce along the bottom, carrier profits at a low ebb, and pent-up demand exhausted, the 2024 game plan is more about hoping and coping than full steam ahead for the trailer market, according to this month’s issue of ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report.

December net orders, at 24,300 units, were nearly 58 percent lower year over year, but 3,300 units more than were booked in November.

“With 35 percent of the year’s orders historically booked in Q4, the quarter’s seasonal factors run roughshod on the nominal data. Seasonally adjusted, December’s orders fall to 17,200 units, a 206k SAAR,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “Dry van orders contracted 87 percent y/y, with reefers down 56 percent, and flats 75 percent lower compared to December 2022.”

She added, “Total cancellations increased to 1.7 percent of the backlog from November’s 0.9 percent, elevated for most segments and much higher for some. Digging down, several markets were again above 1.0 percent, including dry vans at 1.3 percent, flats at 3.5 percent, medium lowbeds at 1.5 percent, and dumps at 1.3 percent. Both tank categories reported a spike in cancellations, both around 7 percent of the backlog. Recent oil price weakness may bear some culpability.” November’s 0.9 percent, elevated for most segments and much higher for some. Digging down, several markets were again above 1.0 percent, including dry vans at 1.3 percent, flats at 3.5 percent, medium lowbeds at 1.5 percent, and dumps at 1.3 percent. Both tank categories reported a spike in cancellations, both around 7 percent of the backlog. Recent oil price weakness may bear some culpability.”

McNealy concluded, “December’s backlog-to-build ratio was squeezed by a stronger build rate offset by only a slight uptick in backlog. This combination of events resulted in a lower 2023-ending backlog-to-build ratio, at 5.3 months now versus the 5.8 months in November.”