For the past three months, we have written about dark clouds on the trailer market horizon. September opens the peak order season, and while it is tempting to say, “here comes the sun,” we would be remiss if we didn’t note that a) one month’s data isn’t enough to blow those clouds away, and b) the freight market clouds have also not started to clear, according to this month’s issue of ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report.

“September’s order intake, at 31,300 units, signifies that interest remains and the negotiations of the past few months are turning into booked business,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director–CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “What we don’t yet know, and why some in the industry still consider demand worse than a year ago, is how long this level of deal closing can be sustained amid the freight recession that has lingered through 2023,” she said. “September marked the first time in 2023 that year over year comparisons have been positive, so certainly a welcome sign for the industry.”

Regarding the trailer backlog, she said, “As expected, orders outpaced production in September, as the annual peak order season kicked off in good fashion. Trailer backlogs grew 3 percent sequentially, but were nearly 21 percent lower y/y, against 2022’s supply-chain constrained and pent-up demand heavy environment. The backlog is now nearly 138.8k units.”

McNealy continued, “With a two-week drop, the positioning of the backlog relative to build remains healthy. Despite the month’s bigger backlog, a stronger September build rate pushed the seasonally adjusted backlog-to-build ratio to 6.0 months.” She concluded, “At September’s build rate, the current backlog essentially commits the industry well into Q1’24. That said, the data continue to provide mixed messages, with cancellations remaining elevated, even as backlogs remain at healthy, albeit shorter, levels.”