The outlook for the U.S. economy is for steady growth but there is little expectation for a significant upward trajectory, according to a new report.
The MAPI Foundation, the research affiliate of the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation, released its quarterly economic forecast, predicting that inflation-adjusted gross domestic product will expand 2.2% in 2014 and 3.0% in 2015. The former is a decrease from 2.5% and the latter a decline from 3.2% in the previous report. GDP is forecast to grow by 3.3% in 2016.
Manufacturing production is expected to outpace GDP, with anticipated growth of 3.4% in 2014, an increase from 3.2% in the previous forecast, and 4.0% in 2015, no change from the prior report. Manufacturing production is anticipated to rise by 3.6% in 2016.
MAPI expects industrial equipment expenditures to advance 11.0% in 2014, 8.6% in 2015, and 5.7% in 2016. The outlook for spending on transportation equipment is for growth of 7.4% in 2014 before declining to 1.5% in 2015 and 0.6% in 2016. Spending on nonresidential structures is anticipated to improve by 6.4% in 2014, 1.8% in 2015, and 7.2% in 2016. Residential fixed investment is forecast to increase 3.6% this year before climbing to 15.7% growth in 2015 and 14.9% in 2016.
Production in non-high-tech manufacturing industries is expected to increase 3.2% in 2014, 3.8% in 2015, and 3.2% in 2016. High-tech manufacturing production, which accounts for approximately 5% of all manufacturing, is anticipated to grow 4.7% in 2014, 8.5% in 2015, and 10.4% in 2016.
The forecast for inflation-adjusted investment in equipment is for growth of 5.7% in 2014, 8.3% in 2015, and 7.2% in 2016. Capital equipment spending in high-tech sectors will also rise. Inflation-adjusted expenditures for information processing equipment are anticipated to increase 4.0% in 2014, and by double digits in each of the next two years—11.9% in 2015 and 10.2% in 2016.
To read the full MAPI press release, click here.