The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (Foundation) released the results of its second quarterly COVID-19 Impact and Recovery Survey which reveal equipment finance companies’ staffing performance, work-from-home expectations and portfolio metrics, including deferrals, defaults and originations. The COVID-19 Impact and Recovery Survey is designed to reflect longer-term effects of the pandemic’s impact on equipment finance companies going forward.

Survey Highlights

Staffing:

• Staffing levels are up, even vs. pre-COVID.
• Small-ticket lenders/lessors expect to have 14 percent more FTEs by January 1, 2022, than they did on January 1, 2020. Two-thirds expect a double-digit increase in staffing.
• Middle-ticket lenders/lessors expect a 7 percent increase.
• Large-ticket lenders/lessors expect a 5 percent increase.
• Banks and Independents both expect a 10 percent increase.
• Captives expect only a 3 percent increase.

Work from Home (WFH):

• Lenders of all types generally expect to be back in the office by 2022.
• 50 percent of Banks, 50 percent of Captives and 39 percent of Independents expect 0 percent or 10 percent WFH in 2022.
• Only 5 percent of Banks, 13 percent of Captives and 22 percent of Independents expect WFH to substantially continue for 75 percent or more of their employees.
• Overall, on average, 69 percent of staff were WFH at the beginning of 2021, and respondents expected more than half of those WFH to return to the office by beginning of 2022, reducing WFH to 31 percent.

Deferrals:

• At the peak of deferrals, lenders had about 8 percent of their portfolio in deferral. Overall deferrals are now down to 1.7 percent; for banks, deferrals are down to 0.6 percent; Independents, 3 percent; and Captives, 8 percent.
• 10 percent of lenders never had any deferrals.
• 55 percent have no deferrals currently.
• 25 percent of lenders are still at their peak deferral percentage.

Defaults:

• Overall, default rates in 2021 are expected to be well below 2020 levels, and even below 2019 levels.
• Large-ticket expectations for the 2021 default rate are even with 2019, at 0.17 percent
• Middle-ticket expects 0.22 percent, well below the 0.38 percent seen in 2020.
• Small-ticket expects a 0.37 percent default rate this year, not much more than half of 0.67 percent in 2020, and well below 0.58 percent in 2019.

Originations:

• Captives expect a 22 percent increase in originations in 2021 vs. 2019, the largest increase of any lender type. However, Captives saw a 14 percent decrease in 2020, as compared to 2019, so net growth over the two-year period would only be 4 percent
• Banks are expected to have double-digit growth in 2020 and 2021, amounting to 25 percent over the two-year period.
• Independents were flat in 2020, but expect to be up 17 percent in 2021.

“The data in the COVID-19 Impact and Recovery Survey provide valuable insights of industry performance by lender type and ticket size for companies to gauge their own results,” said Tom Ware, Foundation Trustee and Research Committee Chair. “Overall, the equipment finance industry appears to be coming through the pandemic stronger than ever, as indicated by metrics including expanding portfolios, positive portfolio performance and increases in new hires.”

COVID-19 Impact and Recovery Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership

Bank, Small Ticket

“In the short term, the world-wide economy is recovering from the global pandemic of COVID-19. This means confidence in the stability of the markets is slowly recovering as supply chains slowly find a new path to stability. This directly affects the supply of commercial assets and their values. I think we will continue under these conditions through at least the end of 2021. Mid-term I think we will see pent-up demand released as product becomes available. Long-term, our industry will continue to adapt to new technologies, regulation, employee desires and customer needs to thrive. I believe the best is in front of us if we continue to innovate with broad vision and courage.” – David Normandin, CLFP, President and CEO, Wintrust Specialty Finance

Independent, Small Ticket

“While the pandemic negatively impacted equipment finance originations in many market segments, as we begin to emerge from COVID restrictions and economic uncertainty, many businesses will be feeling more confident about capital spending and taking on additional debt. This should result in a notable increase in demand for our industry's products and services over the next 18 months.” – Nancy Pistorio, President, Madison Capital, LLC

“I see some slowdown as companies are assessing their needs and trying to determine their office space needs with employees now working out of office.” – Steven Geller, Manager, Leasing Solutions, LLC

Bank, Middle Ticket

“Going forward I see our segment growing in the near and long-term future. I think near term we will continue to grapple with supply chain delays, but the need for financing will stay constant.” – Marci Slagle, CLFP, President, BankFinancial, NA

Survey responses were collected from 64 equipment finance company executives from July 1-29, 2021. Results are available online at https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/covid-impact-recovery-survey/.