In the release of its Commercial Vehicle Dealer Digest, ACT Research reported its heavy-duty forecasts for the remainder of this year and the following two years remain very strong.
“Indicators we track for the economy, for freight and for equipment utilization are about as good as we have ever seen,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “U.S. economic activity continues positive and robust, and we expect real GDP growth in 2021 to sprint ahead by 6.5 percent and by 5.9 percent in 2022. In the out-years, real GDP is projected to return to its longer-run pace of approximately 2 percent. Transportation and freight will shine in this environment.”
Vieth elaborated, “Indeed, with the economy reopening and a semblance of normalcy returning, the near-term outlook is particularly robust. However, even if all goes well, pockets of the economy will still be hobbled by the unique circumstances of this recession and recovery cycle. Some factors may slow the economy’s forward momentum temporarily, but are not likely to cause a reversal in direction.”
He added, “That said, we’ve been reporting for some time that the commercial vehicle market situation is not one of customer demand, but rather of OEM production constraints. Semiconductor, steel, resins, and port bottlenecks represent just some of the constraints impacting the commercial vehicle supply chain. Dislocations should ease in coming months as the industry adjusts and supply channels improve, but we note that supply constraints in 2021 have been especially sticky.”
The report, which combines ACT’s proprietary data analysis from a wide variety of industry sources, paints a comprehensive picture of trends impacting transportation and commercial vehicle markets. This monthly report includes a relevant but high-level forecast summary, complete with transportation insights for use by commercial vehicle dealer executives, reviewing top-level considerations such as for-hire indices, freight, heavy and medium duty segments, the total U.S. trailer market, used truck sales information, and a review of the U.S. macro economy.