ACT Research’s preliminary estimate for December 2019 indicates trailer manufacturers booked 17,200 net orders to their orderboards last month, a 13 percent decline from November volume. Activity was 37 percent below last December. For the full year, the industry booked just under 205,000 net orders, a 51 percent decline versus 2018 volume. That annual volume was the lowest since 2011.

Before accounting for cancellations, new orders in December were 17,900 trailers, off 16 percent month-over-month and 39 percent below last year. Full-year new orders of just over 244,000 units were down 44 percent versus 2018. Final volume will be available later this month. This preliminary market estimate should be within +/- 3% of the final order tally.

“The year closed on a disappointing note, as fleets continue to maintain a very conservative stance toward 2020 capital investment. Backlog declined in 11 months of 2019, with October being the only exception to that trend. The year-end orderboard sets a very soft foundation for OEMs for the new year, as OEMs seek to better balance their production volumes to their existing orderboards,” said Frank Maly, Director–CV Transportation Analysis and Research at ACT Research.

He added, “Preliminary information indicates that production was reduced in December, the result of both holiday schedules and a reaction to the contracting orderboard. We will watch levels in Q1’20 closely to see if OEMs have brought their efforts into better balance.”

Additionally, Maly said, “Inventory levels are another headwind. While inventory did decline as the year closed, the reduction in December was less than would normally be expected. That overhang will cause some further challenges to the industry during early 2020.”