October’s economic report from the National Association of Credit Management took a positive turn from last month’s reading of 52.9, increasing to 53.9.  
 
Emerging from the downward trend of the last two months, the October report of the Credit Managers’ Index (CMI) from the National Association of Credit Management (NACM) showed improvement in the manufacturing and service sectors. Within a month, the combined index gained a full point, rising from 52.3 to 53.9. Still, only time will tell whether it is a glimmer of hope or simply a mirage, cautioned NACM Economist Chris Kuehl, Ph.D. 

"The readings this month have been a vast improvement over the readings of the previous two months, and that is certainly welcome news in a period when the bulk of the data has been trending in a negative direction," said Kuehl, noting the recent weakness in durable goods orders and new homes market, as well as the strength of the dollar and its impact on exports.

The index of favorable factors posted the most significant improvement, increasing from 57.7 in September to 59.4 in October. All four categories within this index rose from the previous month. The index of unfavorable factors also reflected similar improvements, rising from last month's 49.7 to 50.2; it showed increases in its six subcategories as the overall unfavorable group returned to expansion levels. The categories of disputes and dollar amount beyond terms, however, remain in contraction territory.

"It was only July when the data seemed to indicate a very healthy year ahead, and that was followed by two rather disastrous months in August and September," Kuehl noted. "This is the time of year that retail and services will again dominate and manufacturing will become less active. It will merit watching to see if the holiday season can stimulate some more economic expansion."

For a full breakdown of the manufacturing and service sector data and graphics, view the complete October 2015 report at http://web.nacm.org/CMI/PDF/CMIcurrent.pdf. CMI archives may also be viewed on NACM’s website at http://www.nacm.org/cmi/cmi-archive.html.