June’s economic report from the National Association of Credit Management finds yet another reversal of fortune, with the combined index sliding to 53.4 from 54.1. 

The June report of the Credit Managers’ Index (CMI) from the National Association of Credit Management (NACM) fell back to 53.4, mirroring the slide found from February to March. The ongoing inconsistency makes the CMI, among other economic data, most resemble a seesaw, according to NACM Economist Chris Kuehl, Ph.D.

“Every month, analysts await new set of data releases poised to make some declarative statement regarding where the economy is heading—every month, the clear path proves to be elusive once again,” said NACM Economist Chris Kuehl, Ph.D. “There always seems to be something both optimists and pessimists can latch on to.”

The month-to-month changes are not the only “tale of two directions,” as Kuehl characterizes it. There are increasingly wide spreads between the favorable factors and the unfavorable factors within both the manufacturing and service sectors. “On the one hand, there is some hope for better numbers in the future as the favorables look better than in a long while,” Kuehl said. “However, the present is not so positive, as the unfavorables are worsening, which signals that many companies are not in the shape they would like to be and are falling behind in their obligations.”

With the combined index sales category at its lowest in more than a year and unfavorable categories accounts placed for collection and dollar amount of customer deductions falling dramatically, into contraction territory, there is reason to be concerned that the performance of mid-2014 won’t be matched in short order.

“The year-over-year trend is not encouraging,” Kuehl said. “There has been a distinct downward slide, and it is apparent that conditions were far better in mid-2014 than they are now. That was neither expected nor wanted at this stage of a recovery.”

For a full breakdown of the manufacturing and service sector data and graphics, view the complete June 2015 report at http://web.nacm.org/CMI/PDF/CMIcurrent.pdf.