Preliminary net trailer orders rose roughly 4,800 units from September to October, but at 16,900 units, were lower compared to last October, down 52% year over year, according to a new report from ACT Research. Seasonal adjustment (SA) at this point in the annual order cycle lowers October’s tally to 12,300 units, but that’s about 16% above September’s seasonally adjusted intake. Final October results will be available later this month. This preliminary market estimate is typically within ±5% of the final order tally.

“Since we’re still in the early stages of the traditional start to the order season, this month's uptick was expected. It’s also no surprise that the data is significantly below the October 2023 intake, given the soft demand recorded throughout this year,” said Jennifer McNealy, Director CV Market Research & Publications at ACT Research. “October’s data bring ytd 2024 US trailer net orders to 118,300 units, a 37.5% contraction when compared to the first ten months of 2023.”

She cautioned that despite the sequential order improvement, October data continue to prove the expectations of weaker trailer demand relative to recent performance, as continuing weak for-hire truck market fundamentals, low used equipment valuations and already-filled dealer inventories impede stronger activity, especially into early 2025.

"An order uptick showcasing demand, or the lack thereof, depends not just on the first two months of the new order cycle, but at least on order volumes through January 2025," McNealy said. "Industry anecdotes suggest that the lack of optimism continues, based on lower backlogs than we’ve seen in a decade. Despite positive momentum in the US economy, lingering weak carrier profitability suggests little support for trailer orders heading into 2025.”