As I mentioned in my Triple Threat article last November, (posted in the publications listing on my LinkedIn page), the first two legs, (bank unrealized losses on investment securities and the migration of core deposits out of regional and local banks), have already occurred, and my third Triple Threat phase (contributing to more regional and local community bank liquidity challenges), has already begun -- read the Goldman Sachs article on the small business credit freeze: Smaller US Businesses and Towns are Likely to be Hit Hardest by Bank Turmoil
 
Importantly, this freeze has started before any possible hard landing from Fed induced rate hikes to slow the economy and intentionally inflict damage upon our critical small businesses as part of their naive strategy to reduce inflation.

As the Q1 2023 regional and community bank call reports are published by mid-May, we will see not only the empirical evidence of the updated status from unrealized investment losses on securities but, more importantly, the impact from the initial stages of the Fed induced credit freeze on small business.

As many of you in our business know, my intention in publishing this information is not to create social media panic but rather, to better anticipate and prepare for any potential adverse impact and the opportunities that will materialize from these historical events.

Our industry is strong and will flourish through these events as long as we are prepared and take the appropriate measures from prior lessons learned.

Stay tuned for more…

Editor's Note: Read Dale Kluga’s most recent Featured Blog posting:
Bank Runs, Bank Failures, Bailouts and More from ELFA’s National Funding Conference